Question: What effect on a teams run total does the ½ inning a home team doesn't play if it is ahead going into the bottom of the last inning?
Why I asked the question: I have wondered where why teams were off on their Pythagorean record and wondered if the ½ inning that wasn't played made any difference.
I explain the Pythagorean theorem with respect to baseball records under the article:
Analysis: The number of innings that a team pitched vice the number innings that a team batted were researched and compared. The innings pitched was easy to find as it is used in every pitching statistic under the sun, but I was not able to locate the innings batted or outs record. After trying to find a list of total outs, innings batted, etc., I had to go with the following formula to determine innings batted (basically Innings = Outs/3):
Innings batted =(TPA+DP+CS-H-BB-HBP-CI)/3 + 5.3
TPA = Total plate appearances
DP = Double play (out after getting on base)
CS = Caught Stealing (again out after getting on base)
H = Hit
BB = Base on Balls
HBP = Hit by pitch
CI = Catcher interference
5.3 = When I initially took the total innings pitched minus the innings batted there was an average discrepancy of 5 1/3 innings worth of outs not accounted for. These were cases when a runner was on base but was picked off the base pitcher, thrown out stretching a single to a double, etc.
Innings pitched minus innings batted were used to get the difference from one team to the next. The number show what I expected, teams with a winning record did not have as many innings batted compared to those that didn't win as often. For example the Cubs had 18 more innings pitched than batted while the Nationals hit in 31 more innings than they pitched.
After those calculations, the runs these innings would have created was calculated. The league average of 4.5 runs per games was used. Here is the formula:
Runs difference if extra inning played = Innings/9*4.5
The positive or negative runs were added to the team's total in runs scored for the season. The teams initial Pythagorean W-L record was calculated. Then the total number of games wons that the Pythagorean was off was added together. For the non adjusted values, it was off by a total of 103 games. Finally, I took the Pythagorean value using the new runs scored value, got the sum of the difference of the new Pythagorean wins and the actual number (98) and then compared the two sums. Here is the data:
|MLB||W||L||RS||RA||W – Orig Py||L – Orig Py||Diff – Orig Py|
|MLB||Innings Pitched – Innings Batted||Additional runs||New RS||W – Py Adjust||L- Py Adjust||Diff – Py Adjust||Team change|