Should Joakim Soria be moved to the Royal’s starting pitching rotation?

Question: Should Joakim Soria be moved to the Royal’s starting pitching rotation?

Why I ask the question: Soria has pitched as a starter previously, including a perfect game. Is his role as an ace reliever more important than the chance he might be a good starter?

Analysis:

I weighed what he might bring to the table as a starter, vice what his replacement will do as the closer. Here are the possible runs saved by using Soria instead of using an average league pitcher (4.50 ERA).

			Innings
		100	150	200	250
	1.60	32.2	48.3	64.4	80.6
Soria's ERA	2.00	27.8	41.7	55.6	69.4
	2.40	23.3	35.0	46.7	58.3
	2.80	18.9	28.3	37.8	47.2
	3.20	14.4	21.7	28.9	36.1
	3.60	10.0	15.0	20.0	25.0
	4.00	5.6	8.3	11.1	13.9
	4.40	1.1	1.7	2.2	2.8

Here are the possible runs saved by using Soria instead an average Royal's pitcher (5.50 ERA).

			Innings
		100	150	200	250
	1.60	43.3	65.0	86.7	108.3
Soria's ERA	2.00	38.9	58.3	77.8	97.2
	2.40	34.4	51.7	68.9	86.1
	2.80	30.0	45.0	60.0	75.0
	3.20	25.6	38.3	51.1	63.9
	3.60	21.1	31.7	42.2	52.8
	4.00	16.7	25.0	33.3	41.7
	4.40	12.2	18.3	24.4	30.6

Here are the additional runs created by Soria’s replacement.

		Innings
		60	70	80
	1.60	0.0	0.0	0.0
ERA of replacement	2.00	2.7	3.1	3.6
	2.40	5.3	6.2	7.1
	2.80	8.0	9.3	10.7
	3.20	10.7	12.4	14.2
	3.60	13.3	15.6	17.8
	4.00	16.0	18.7	21.3
	4.40	18.7	21.8	24.9

Finally, here are the stats of the only extended time Soria spent in the minors as a stater:

Year	League	Clubs	W-L	SV	GP	GS	CG	SHO	IP	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2006	MXPW	Obregon	9-1	0	13	13	1	1	78.1	315	60	27	21	10	20	79	2.41

I did a few searches and have seen no projection of what Soria might do as a starter, so I made my own guess. My bet would be for his first complete season: 200 innings (I do have some durability issues with his size) of 3.2 ERA performance replacing a pitcher with a 5.50 ERA and his replacement in the pen (Rosa) having a 3.60 ERA. Ramirez could be used as the closer.

51. runs created – 13.3 runs lost = 37.8 less runs allowed or ~4 wins.

Soria should probably be eased into the starting role, probably adding 60 innings a season. He could piggyback with another Royal starter such as Bannister or Duckworth (or Rosa?). He could be at 120 this season, 180 the next season and then a full load after then. 100 innings this season as a starter would be the equivalent to the role he plays as a reliever.

With this information, I would say give him a shot at being a starter and see if there are any fatigue issues. The Royals will not be competing for any championship in 2009, so might as well see if he can start. If so, great, if not, move him back to the pen for a run in 2010.